Happy Monday everyone! Before I share with you a recap of last week’s mortgage market report and a preview of what may come, I wanted to share this inspirational video with you first.  I hope that it you are inspired to make your week a Great one.  Enjoy!    

Now on to the Mortgage Market Report as of Aug. 17, 2009

Last Week:

There was continued market volatility; the mortgage market regained the losses from the week before as interest rate markets swing wildly from one economic report to the next. Last week, Treasury successfully borrowed another $75B to fund the budget deficit; the three auctions went generally OK, evidence that investors are still willing to step up at these low interest rates. July retail sales were much worse than market expectations and the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped to a new record low at 63.2. As is the case these days however, the equity markets swept the obvious under the rug and kept going; although the DJIA did end the week lower for the first time in a month.  

This Week:

No Treasury borrowing to concern traders. Housing starts and permits, along with existing home sales will rev up the chatter and debate about the status of the housing sector. It isn’t good but the spinmiesters will paint the lipstick on the pig and take it to the prom. We are focusing on 3.50% for the 10 yr note (Friday’s close 3.57%), a level that may be difficult to break unless the equity markets actually start the big correction that is almost universally expected. That may be the problem; as long as it is expected it may not happen. Pushing mortgage rate lower will require a crack in the equity markets and a new concern that the economy isn’t as rosy as most believe now. This week will likely see continued intraday and interday volatility that have characterized the markets for the past two months.

Until next mortgage market update. Make it a great week!

The above is brought to you in this Mortgage Blog by San Francisco Bay Area’s Premier Mortgage Broker, Brad Louden. I invite you to share any feedback or comment. Please leave a reply in the comments section below.

Mortgage Market Snapshot for Aug. 12, 2009

Interest rate markets started a little better early this morning with the stock indexes hanging close to yesterday’s close. Today Treasury will auction $23B of 10 yr notes at 1:00. At 2:15 the FOMC meeting will conclude with their policy statement; no changes in interest rates are expected. Likely comments on the economy and re-affirming that inflation concerns are not prevalent now; but the Fed will be ever vigilant and nip it in the bud if there is any price increase pressures. Generally the statement will not provide much new.

Early this morning the weekly MBA mortgage applications report; a decline of 3.5% overall, purchase apps were up 1.1% while re-finance apps were down 7.2%. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 52.3 percent of total applications from 54.2 percent the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.38% from 5.17%, with points increasing to 1.18 from 1.02 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.71% from 4.60%, with points increasing to 1.20 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

The June trade deficit increased to $27.01B frm $26.0B in May; imports exceeded exports.

Keep posted for more mortgage news this week!

The above is brought to you in this Mortgage Blog by San Francisco Bay Area’s Premier Mortgage Broker, Brad Louden.

I invite you to share any feedback or comment. Please leave a reply in the comments section below.

Happy Monday everyone!

Rate markets started better this morning; the stock index trading was pointing to a lower open. Same thing; stocks weak, a little support for the bond and mortgage markets. No economic data today so watching stocks will be the focus. We are not looking for anything substantive for either market through the day. The benchmark 10 yr note broke its seven week support at 3.75% on Friday to close at 3.86%; projects a possible move to 4.00% for the note and mortgage rates up another 15 basis points.

Treasury will borrow $75B in three auctions this week, tomorrow $37B of 3 yr notes, Wednesday $23B of 10 yr notes and Thursday $15B of 30 yr bonds. On top of supply pressures, tomorrow the FOMC meeting will start with the policy statement on Wednesday at 2:15 PM. The equity markets are still overbought from a technical perspective, but continue to plow ahead adding more pressure on the rate markets. Bottom line; the interest rate markets are not looking good and are marked with a high degree of volatility.

Until next market update. Make it a great week!

I invite you to share any feedback, comment or tip. Please leave a reply by clicking on the comments button.

The above is made available to you in this Mortgage Blog by San Francisco Bay Area’s Premier Mortgage Broker, Brad Louden.

It’s TGIF!

The U.S. unemployment rate is down to 9.4% for July 2009. Although a small drop from June’s 9.5%, it is the first decline since April of 2008.

Private economists have forecasted the unemployment rate to increase to 9.6% in July. Obviously, these figures were far better than anticipated. As a result, they sent stockmarkets surging in London and New York. The FTSE 100 index climbed 46 points to 4,737 while on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 140 points during early trading. And our US dollar gained power as it rose against the euro and the yen.

This positive trend can also be seen from home sales improving. Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy shrank at an annual pace of 1% in the second quarter, a major improvement over the decline of about 6% in the previous six months.

On the other end, Eugenio Aleman, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, explained the shock figures by saying that a significant number of disenchanted workers had left the labor force and weren’t therefore listed as unemployed.

What do YOU think? Will the unemployment rate continue to decrease in the coming months or is this a temporary drop?

I invite you to share any feedback or comment.

Meanwhile, enjoy this video by TBWS. I love these guys.

The above is made available to you in this Mortgage Blog by San Francisco Bay Area’s Premier Mortgage Broker, Brad Louden.

Scams on Craigslist continue to evolve.

I recently posted an ad on Craigslist to sell my fish tank, and shortly after publishing it, I got different versions of emails offering payment via a check coming in the mail, and mentioning that they will hire a mover to pick up the “item” once I’ve cashed the check.

Had I not been familiar with Craigslist’s warning to deal only with people who I can meet personally, I might very well have fallen for the scam. (I will write about how the actual scam works in another post)

But that close encounter with a Craigslist scammer is not what I’m writing about on this post. Here’s one story that I find particularly disturbing. Jenni Brennan, a mother from Abington, Massachusets finds her son up for sale on Craigslist.

She was informed by a stranger that a picture of Jenni’s son Jake was used as the “boy for adoption” in the online scam. Apparently, there was an ad on Craigslist that read:

“A CUTE BABY BOY FOR ADOPTION HE IS VERY HEALTHY AND READY FOR ADOPTION FOR MORE YOU COME BACK TO US.”

The ad itself didn’t mention much and didn’t provide any photo. But anyone replying to the ad would then get an email from a peter_mark76@yahoo.com (Yahoo has then shut down this email address), containing a photo of this little boy, and succeedingly - a request for $300 to start the adoption process.

As it turns out, an unscrupolous character lifted the baby’s photo from Jenni’s family blog. The baby in the picture was her then 7-mo. old son, Jacob.

Watch the following video to learn more about the story:

Do you have photos of family in the public domain? Does anything about this story change or strengthen your perspective about personal information being on the web? Pls share by commenting on this post.

The above is made available to you in this Mortgage Blog by San Francisco Bay Area’s Premier Mortgage Broker, Brad Louden.

Treasuries and mortgages started a little better this morning, driven as usual by the trade in the stock indexes. The stock indexes at 8:30 were pointing to a lower open at 9:30. At 8:30 June personal income and spending hit, adding a little to the improvement in the treasury and mortgage markets. Income was at -1.3% a little lower than -1.1% expected while spending was a little better at +0.4% against +0.3% expected. May spending was revised lower, to +0.1% frm +0.3%.

Market volatility remains at very high levels but within a narrow range of about 25 basis points on both the bellwether 10 yr note and mortgages. The yields have been confirmed in that range now for 30 trading days with the exception of 5 days when the 10 yr note slipped below 3.48%. Lots of chop but markets are comfortable in the range with not much thrust to break out in either direction. While the equity markets continue to factor in the end of the recession the bond and mortgage markets are thinking more about potential inflation; although not on the immediate radar inflation fears will continue to be an influence as long as the economy is believed to be on a growth path.

This week has a lot of data to chew through but it is dominated with Friday’s employment report; estimates are for job losses to be 333K with the unemployment rate at 9.6%, up 0.1% from June.

I’ll keep you posted!

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